According to the recently released survey of the National Business Economics association (NABE), the NABE Prospective Survey Committee forecast that US GDP growth will fall to 2.3% in 2019 and then to 1.8% in 2020, with uncertainty in trade policy is one of the risks to the world’s largest economy.
NABE President and chief economist of KPMG, Constance Hunter, said that the Commission stated that the US economy will continue to grow in 2020, but the rate will reach below 2% for the first time since year. 2016.
The survey, which was conducted from September 9 to September 16, gave a general forecast of the Commission comprising 54 economists.
NABE’s Prospective Survey Committee Chairman, Gregory Daco, said that the members had become more pessimistic about the prospects of the economy in the summer, with 80% perceiving risks, compared to 60. % as of June survey results, when US GDP growth is forecast to reach 2.1% in 2020.
According to Mr. Daco, the rise of protectionism, uncertainty in trade policy In many countries and slowing global economic growth are perceived to be risks to US economic activity, of which trade policy is considered the biggest risk, with 53% of its members. same idea.
The US economy grew by 2.9% in 2018. In the second quarter of this year, the growth rate reached 2%, down from 3.1% in the first quarter.
Recent weak economic figures have caused financial markets to fluctuate and raise concerns about the risk of a US economic recession, leading to forecasts that the Federal Reserve will again lower interest rates. at the policy meeting this month./
