Last week, the State Bank continued to push up the T-bill channel with 87 trillion dong newly issued while there were 69 trillion dong coming to maturity, net suction through this channel was 18 trillion dong. Interbank interest rates, after falling to below 2% on September 30, 2019, returned to 2.3% / year for overnight maturities as the SBV continuously net withdrew and the need to increase reserves. Required beginning of the month.

However, this interest rate is still lower than the treasury bill interest rate, the liquidity in the interbank is very abundant, interbank interest rate is expected to fluctuate at low level, around 2.5% / year of the interest rate. bills. The difference between VND and USD interest rates on interbank was maintained at 0.2-0.4% / year.

Deposit rates in the market 1 remained at 4.3-5.5% / year with terms of less than 6 months, 5.5-7.5% / year with terms of 6 to less than 12 months and 6.4-8.1% / year with terms. 12-13 months.

According to information from the State Bank, as of September 24, 2019, total outstanding loans grew by 8.64%, capital mobilization increased by 9.03% and total means of payment (M2) increased by 8.58%. Typically, the actual growth rate for 9 months will be higher. As in 2018, the number of credit growth finalized in the third quarter was 10.33% - higher than the number announced on September 20, 2018 to 0.81%, in just 6 working days at the end of the quarter.

However, despite accelerating disbursement in the last 3 working days of the month (starting from September 24, 2019), the credit growth forecast for 9 months of 2019 will only be around 9% - the lowest growth rate. compared to the same period of the last 4 years.

According to experts, the room for credit growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 is still very large and the demand for capital mobilization of commercial banks will remain high, making it difficult for interest rates to fall. However, if the deposit growth is maintained as well as the previous quarter, deposit rates are likely to decline in early 2020.

Regarding VND / USD, while the major currencies have strong fluctuations, there are currencies devaluing up to 8-11% (like KWR, SEK) but there are also currencies up 5-7% (like RUB, THB), then against USD, VND became one of the rare currencies with stable exchange rates against USD.

From the beginning of the year until now, VND once created a wave from the end of April to the end of May, but the buying rate of banks at the peak of the wave also increased by only 0.84% compared to the end of 2018, at VND 23,360 / USD. , then quickly cooled. Even when the huge and sudden pressure came from USDCNY exchange rate, which surpassed 7.0 and CNY continuously decreased, the decrease was up to nearly 4% in August 2019 only; VND remained flat, even falling.