The victory in disease control creates momentum for economic recovery

Economic historians can count the beginning of the Asian century as from May 2020, when most Asian economies have recovered almost fully while the West is still struggling with the mandate. Radiation prevention Covid-19. Asia has emerged as an economic region of cohesion similar to the European Union (EU), and is increasingly well isolated from economic sho‌cks in both the United States and Europe.

Google’s daily data on workplace mobility uses smartphone positioning to determine the number of commuters - so far this is the most accurate and up-to-date way of reflecting economic activity . Accordingly, until May 13, 2020, Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Vietnam all returned to normal levels. Japan and Germany have climbed back to 20% below normal. Meanwhile, the US, France, and the UK remain paralyzed. Google can’t "read" about the situation in China, but there is some evidence that China has also recovered.

Asia’s economic resilience is consistent with the region’s success in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. China, Japan, Taiwan (China), South Korea, Hong Kong (China), and Singapore all have Covid-19 mortality rates at just one-tenth of Germany and 1/100 of the United States. , English, French, or Spanish.

On May 21, the US struggled to reopen its economy despite a much higher rate of new infections compared to other Asian or Asian countries. But this entails a great risk. For example, two Ford Motor plants in the US reopened on May 17 and closed on May 20 after employees there tested positive for Covid-19.

Agility and cohesion of the Asian economy

Asia now plays the role of an integrated economic bloc. 60% of Asian countries’ trade is within Asia itself, at the same rate as the European Union. Google data validates China’s April trade data. Intra-Asian trade increased compared to 2019, while trade with the US stalled.

Meanwhile, the Chinese stock market so far in 2020 is only down 2% on the MSCI index in US dollars, while other major stock markets are severely negative.

The strength of the Chinese stock market is noteworthy amid an escalating economic war between the United States and China, including the US banning third-party exports of computer chips made by US intellectual property to Chinese companies is blacklisted by the US, and the threat of Chinese companies being removed from the US stock market.

However, the Chinese market has recorded the overwhelming dominance of medical technology companies, such as Alibaba Health Information, which has doubled until this point in 2020. China’s ambition The world leader in artificial intelligence and big data analytics in the health sector has been fueled by the Covid-19 pandemic itself, to the concern of US officials.

This week’s Congressional Congress is expected to approve a new $ 1,400 billion government investment in 5G broadband, factory automation, self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, and other fields. relate to.

Does China threaten US dominance in technology?

Last week, the Commerce Department imposed controls on semiconductor sales for Chinese firms if the products were made anywhere in the world using US technology.

But Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei designs its own chips and employs TSMC (a Taiwanese firm that makes semiconductors) to make those chips. TSMC uses US chip fabrication equipment and will therefore be subject to the US ban. Industry analysts are waiting to see how closely the US will implement its regulations in this case. US regulations have a grace period of 120 days.

The Trump administration has now failed to persuade most of its allies to do business with Huawei, which Washington sees as a threat to U.S. national security.

A small number of Dutch and ASML companies in the Netherlands now dominate the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market capable of producing state-of-the-art chips. If the United States prevents companies around the world from selling to Huawei, the Chinese company will no longer have high-end semiconductor devices.

Huawei is said to own a chip warehouse. The amount of semiconductors imported by China doubled between late 2017 and the end of 2018, suggesting that China has been cautious in hoarding its chips. If the ban is fully implemented, it will cause damage to Huawei.

But this is the last card that Washington can play today. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment is the last US control point for critical technologies.

If someday China is fully autonomous in producing chips quickly, the last stronghold for U.S. dominance in technology is expected to collapse.