Covid-19 brought new challenges to RCEP negotiations

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The Covid-19 pandemic is hampering the negotiation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which could make it difficult to achieve the goals as envisioned. In Moody’s Global Trade Monitor report on May 22, the RCEP negotiators are shifting their focus on domestic Covid-19 issues, leaving them distracted.
Covid-19 brought new challenges to RCEP negotiations
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RCEP aims to create the largest free trade bloc in the world, but the Covid-19 sho‌ck, in addition to its distribution of benefits, is highlighting the difficulties in finalizing the deal by the end of 2020. Moreover India’s absence in negotiations has stalled the discussions.

And Japan announced that it would not sign the agreement without the participation of India. The parties aimed to complete the agreement by the end of 2020. RCEP is a free trade agreement (FTA) proposed in the Asia-Pacific region among ASEAN countries including 10 members. could be Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Five of ASEAN’s FTA partners, including Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, are also part of the RCEP. India, which is also an FTA partner of ASEAN, has refused to join RCEP with major unresolved concerns.

The main issues behind India’s decision not being part of the RCEP include protection against an increase in imports, not different enough from China, being able to circumvent laws of origin, maintain five As in 2014, there is no reliable guarantee of market access and non-tariff barriers. Covid-19 is reducing demand, disrupting global supply chains and promoting export restrictions on food and health supplies, on the basis of ongoing trade negotiations. Covid-19 further increased uncertainty over Brexit negotiations during the transitional period. For the United States and China, Covid-19 presents new challenges to fulfill the commitments stated in Phase 1 of the trade agreement.

According to the World Trade Organization, global trade will fall from 13% to 32% this year in the context of interrupted demand for consumption, investment and supply. The main reasons are the decrease in consumer demand and investment due to Covid-19 and disruptions along the supply chain and transportation routes due to restrictions. The Moody ratings agency expects consumer demand to recover only gradually in the second half of this year. Covid-19 will also lead to the commercial fragmentation of essential goods because more than 90 countries have imposed restrictions or bans on the export of medical supplies and food, as the shortage presents challenges yet. have been with governments and health systems. Continuous movement in the supply chain is likely to accelerate. Transition to more regional supply chains, already occurring in the automotive and electronics sectors, could also accelerate, as well as shifting to production of important domestic goods such as pharmaceuticals and food. The Covid-19 Crisis also posed gaps in timely supply chain management and could lead companies to consider moving their supply chains closer to their final markets and building new supply chains. contingency plans. Data flows and transactions in digital services can accelerate as more consumption and employment patterns change.

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