11 days have passed since the US-China summit on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka (Japan), what the public is interested in how the US-China trade negotiations progress and the two sides will What are the real concessions? In the end, China won, America was forced to give in or like the White House boss’s statement: "America won big"?
The answer depends on the political stance and the hypothetical goal that the parties make. But public opinion generally states that trade tension will not win, "destroying 1,000 enemies, I will sacrifice 800 people".
Mr. Trump’s "High Flag"
According to the Washington Post , China, Huawei Corporation, retailers, consumers and Wall Street were the winners of the US-China trade war, while the failed faction was the White House and the hard-line faction. U.S. Congress. The basis that this newspaper used to prove after the summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump not only did not impose punitive taxes on the remaining 300 billion USD of Chinese goods, but also "release" Huawei.
Meanwhile, China is only committed to buying large quantities of agricultural products, energy, technology products, and continuing shopping programs, but the number is unclear. This shows that due to the pressure of re-election, Mr. Trump may start to loosen sanctions against China.
However, there are also comments that Mr. Trump "read the heart", Mr. Xi Jinping. Mr. Trump announced that he allowed American businesses to continue selling products to Huawei so that Xi "kept his face" in the country, then pulled China back to the negotiating table, concealing criticism of the G20 conference. bring something. This is the "high flag" of Mr. Trump.
4 determinants
For the US-China trade war, there are four main factors that will decide the win and defeat of the parties.
The first is the lifting of sanctions against Huawei: This is Mr. Xi’s request and Mr. Trump responded immediately. However, after that, White House Commercial Advisor Peter Navarro and US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Rossi pointed out that the lifting of sanctions is limited to low-level chips that do not affect national security. and the annual limit of less than 1 billion USD, the remaining must be appraised and granted permission by the Ministry of Trade for each specific item.
In other words, Huawei has not been taken out of the "black list", whether the US continues to sell technology products to Huawei completely depends on the results of US-China trade negotiations.
Second, China stopped importing US soybeans, severely striking loyal voters with Mr. Trump. Data from the US Department of Agriculture showed that, compared to the same period last year, the value of US soybean exports to China fell by $ 8.7 billion. Soybeans account for 52% of the value of US agricultural exports to China.
In the future, China’s purchase of so many US soybeans becomes Beijing’s "font", which could affect Trump’s re-election ability. Currently, cholera pig in Africa is severely raging in China, causing millions of pigs to die, leading to a shortage of pork supply. Whether or not China imports US pork may become a "negotiating card" with the US. What stressed President Trump was the negotiating environment that Beijing wanted to create.
Is Huawei a conclusion for the US-China technology war? (Source: AFP)
Third , "release" is Huawei a conclusion for the US-China technology war? Do not use Huawei’s 5G device, restrain the "Made in China 2025" strategy, investigate commercial espionage activities and train 1,000 Chinese experts training programs, limit Chinese students to study sensitive areas ... all of which are related to America’s Chinese control strategy, not because of the "release" of Huawei but falling into the "rat-head elephant" situation.
However, the White House also faces internal pressure because every year, technology enterprises export to China tens of billions of dollars of goods. So, these businesses are trying to persuade the Trump government to loosen sanctions. On the other hand, Republican MPs like Marco Rubio, Democratic Party leader and minority leader in Chuck Schumer Senate or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all oppose "pardon" Huawei, saying this will lead. to catastrophic consequences.
If the United States deliberately deals with Huawei and other Chinese technology businesses, US "big men" like Boeing, Intel, Qualcomm or Apple could become targets for China to retaliate. In the future, the ability of the US to request Huawei’s supervisor to operate as it did for ZTE technology is not without it, but for security reasons as well as the respect of nationalism. and on the face of the nation, the Chinese side cannot accept that.
Fourth , the tariff war is hard to end. On July 7, Mr. Trump was very pleased with the "thousands of manufacturing enterprises leaving China", arguing that China is under great pressure. In fact, it would take years or even decades to force manufacturing companies to leave China, but China may have felt the pressure of tariff measures.
On July 4, Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Cao Phong asked the US to abolish all tariff measures for $ 250 billion of Chinese goods, otherwise there would be no trade agreement, given see Beijing paying close attention to the impact of tariff measures. On the contrary, this encourages Mr. Trump to continue using tariff measures to force China to concede, failing to achieve its goal will not be likely to stop. Meanwhile, if negotiations go on, the collision between the two countries will expand into new areas such as finance and currency.
