The US and China will reevaluate the progress of the "phase 1" trade agreement later this week - about six months after the deal comes into effect.
It is known that the first phase agreement has temporarily put an end to the damage from the trade war - with a series of retaliatory tariffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars in goods - between the two countries with the largest economies in the world.
The phase 1 agreement also includes preventing China’s theft of intellectual property and forced technology transfers. However, the focus of the deal is on China’s commitment to buy at least $ 200 billion more in American goods and services in 2020-2021.
Even before the above agreement was signed, some experts say, it is "impossible" to ask China to increase its purchase of a quantity of US goods and services at this level. The goal is even more difficult to implement when the corona virus epidemic breaks out, reducing the need to buy goods from China.
Beijing has complied but not met the quota
Under the first-stage trade agreement, China will buy an additional $ 63.9 billion in manufacturing, agricultural, and energy products by 2020 and $ 12.8 billion in services compared to 2017 purchases.
In 2021, the difference is 98.2 billion USD and 25.1 billion USD respectively.
Official data from China and the US will both be used to gauge whether China is able to deliver on the deal as promised.
The post-trade war between the US and China was even more strained because of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and China passed the national security law. Photo: Getty
According to CNBC , although the figures usually refer to the same items, the data for exports from the US to China is often not the same as the data that China imported from the US because of differences in the method of collection. data and evaluation criteria in two countries.
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), by the end of this year, China needs to buy a total of $ 142.7 billion in US goods as stated in the agreement - if calculated by US export data standards.
Meanwhile, if using Chinese imports, Beijing needs to buy up to $ 172.7 billion of US goods. However, PIIE data shows that in the first half of 2020, China purchased less than 25% of the year.
The progress of the US-China trade deal is based on official data from two countries. Photo: CNBC
Based on the categories of goods, the PIIE said China did not meet the target in all three categories of goods. In particular, energy products are purchased by China at least in the first 6 months of 2020.
Despite Beijing’s delay, Larry Kudlow, US President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, insisted "really good numbers" for Chinese purchases, according to Reuters.
Mr. Kudlow also denied that the first phase trade deal was canceled due to deteriorating US-China relations. Relations between the two countries have declined significantly in recent months. The two sides fiercely contested on a wide range of issues, from the origin of the Covid-19 translation to the national security law in Hong Kong.
Some other experts assessed that the US will not continue to impose more tariffs on China because the US economy has also suffered very heavy losses due to the Covid-19 epidemic.
