Many companies are advised to prepare for a long and turbulent road ahead and countless tariffs. Although the last week accepted a "truce", but both the US and China did not seem to mean to change their stance.
Beijing officials affirmed a prerequisite for reaching an agreement that the US must lift tariffs imposed on the current 250 billion Chinese goods. The Washington side still insists on changing the economic development model - something that it is difficult for Asian countries to accept and is unlikely to happen.
Jon cowley - Baker McKenzie ’s international trade lawyer (Hong Kong) - said: "At the moment I don’t see that the US tax dismantling scenario will happen. They are too far-reaching, more deeply concerned. ”
“What I just heard is that the Beijing government wants to wait and see what the US does with Chinese businesses named in the export ’blacklist’. They have not yet made a commitment to increase the purchase of agricultural products until there is a positive action, ”said cowley.
The US is difficult to accept the removal of tariffs imposed on 250 billion dollars of Chinese goods - Photo: The Vox
Many experts, former officials and businesses damaged by tariffs have accepted the risk of US-China negotiations to collapse in the future. Credit Suisse bank vice president Dao Dong China branch described the past 12 months of war as just the "first sentence of the first chapter" of a new superpower competition.
According to researcher Du Van Ly working at Charhar Institute: "The trade war over the past year is facing many difficult turning points because of the unpredictable personality of President Donald Trump. The leader also instigated cautious sentiment towards China in the United States. This situation is difficult to change in the short term.
“My partners in Washington are concerned about China as it is today. They tried to find a way to deal with a rising China. The war was not launched by President Trump himself, behind him was a team of advisers, some of whom were hard-pressed, ”said Du.
China does not understand the American position. A former US official judged that President Trump frequently changed his mind as a destabilizing factor.
Bryan Mercurio, a professor of international economic law at Hong Kong University, shared the above opinion: "It is not clear what the US wants: opening the market, strengthening intellectual property protection and ending the forced technology transfer. , improve the business environment in China or restructure the whole Chinese economy? Beijing officials think there is no need to give in when the US side does not even know what it wants.
In addition to China, the US threatens to tax EU goods, using tariffs that force Mexico to strongly implement its policy of preventing immigrants.
The risk of trade war in Japan - Korea has just flared up. Japan restricts the export of three chemicals used in manufacturing technological equipment, Korea threatens to retaliate.
According to Professor Henry Gao from Singapore Management University: "It is worrying that the US uses tariffs as weapons to achieve other goals. Some countries like Japan have learned to follow - this is harmful to the global trading system.
