However, with the other tough choices still open, the White House boss’s statement is seen as a "double" act in negotiating the world’s second-largest economy after more than a year of war. trade with the US. However, analysts still hope the meeting between the two leaders is key to bringing the talks back on track, thereby reducing the tension in the US-China trade war.
Before coming to Japan, Mr. Donald Trump said quite firmly: "It is possible ... We reached a good agreement." He even expressed his desire to have a "tight handshake" with the Chinese head after the trade war, insisting that it would not take much time in the negotiations that are being expected by the whole world. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also said that the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing completed "about 90%" and expressed optimism that it could soon complete the entire deal.
However, the fact that President Trump is still preparing the scenario will impose additional duties on all imported goods from China if the two countries continue to disagree on trade issues, making analysts skeptical for although still evaluating this is one of the most closely watched bilateral meetings at this G20 Summit.
Professor Ngo Vinh Long - historian, international University of Maine diplomat (USA) - said: "If Mr. Xi Jinping meets Donald Trump, I think that China will have some flexibility" . However, the US-China trade war will not be solved in this G20 Conference. He explains: "The trade war will not end before the US presidential election in 2020. President Trump needs to" fight "with other countries to get Americans’ votes and Republican support. ... ".
Meanwhile, some other comments suggest that Xi Jinping will try to extend this issue to the end of Mr. Trump’s term in the hope that the situation will subside under the new president’s term - another person. not Mr. Trump. That may be true, but Mr. Trump will definitely not let Mr. Xi Jinping have the time to "sentence" like that but wants to have an early answer.
However, in order to achieve results from China, the US should also avoid losing Beijing’s face. It would be disastrous if the US made China lose face. Anyway, China is now the second largest economy in the world. The United States needs a moderate concession to keep the face of China, so that Washington can achieve results.
Despite his appearance, Mr. Trump seems to be taking the upper hand, but recently, many large American business associations have tried to dissuade him from thinking, because the US cannot separate from China and take a tariff will create a "butterfly effect", negatively affecting the economy, not conducive to pursuing the possibility of re-election to the president.
For example, if the US imposes a punitive tax on the remaining $ 300 billion of Chinese goods, including $ 167 billion are consumer electronics products such as phones, tablets, music devices, gaming machines ..., prices of these items will definitely increase.
Because the majority of consumers are not in a hurry to pursue the trend of purchasing new electronic products mentioned above, just need to raise prices, they will extend the replacement cycle. As a result, the timetable for launching new technology products will also be prolonged. Just "waiting" can negatively affect economic growth. The main reason is that in the current society, smart products are taking the leading role and the development of this industry chain depends very much on the speed of changing consumer products.
So, if Mr. Trump imposes punitive taxes on people-related products, "avalanche effect" is a story that cannot be taken lightly. It is not to mention the current situation that even if the US-China has "shook hands" it is difficult to avoid the underground war in the field of science and technology.
In addition to science and technology, the US-China financial war is also a big challenge. There are currently three large Chinese investment banks that may be denied access to the US financial system, caused by these banks violating US sanctions against North Korea and being investigated. . Due to the information on the sensitive time, there has been speculation that the US is deliberately adding cards in its hands before returning to the trade negotiating table with China.
The current situation is that if the US-China trade negotiation breaks down, financial war boom is hard to avoid. The issue became even more interesting when not many high-ranking Chinese officials recently believed that, when necessary, the country’s yuan (NDT) could break the 7-yuan exchange rate of 1 USD. hold since the international financial crisis in 2008.
In addition to lowering interest rates by the European Central Bank and the US, the call for quantitative easing will increase and the competition for currency devaluation among countries will cause financial turmoil in the world. Small economies such as South Korea or Southeast Asian countries may fall into recession first.
Faced with the current unpredictable situation, many big banks and financial institutions have warned the market that it cannot stand the US-China "turning up" together. Once the meeting with Trump - The episode has the same ending as the meeting Trump - Kim in Hanoi in February, in the short term, the whole world will fall into financial crisis, the stock market will fall into a downward trend, Ngan US Federal Reserve (FED) not only reduced interest rates right in July, 2016 but also fell sharply, possibly up to 1%.
