ảnh minh họa

Tra loi phong van, ong Ngan cho rang trong giai doan nay can co nhung thay doi:

- Chinh sach that chat tien te trong giai doan dau nam la can thiet. Nhung hien nay Chinh phu da trien khai cac bien phap phoi hop nhu giam chi tieu thuong xuyen, kiem soat hieu qua dau tu cong, chong dau co..., tuc la co su "chia lua" chu khong chi dua tren chinh sach tien te nhu dau nam.

Vi vay, NHNN can noi long bot chinh sach tien te de giup cho thi truong luu thong on dinh va kinh te phat trien.

Vua qua da co dau hieu san xuat kinh doanh bi thu hep do thieu von. Neu de lau dai se thieu hang hoa, nen kinh te khong dat duoc muc tieu tang truong. Chung ta khong nen de cho nen kinh te vua lam phat cao lai vua bi suy giam, thieu hang hoa va cac thi truong chung khoan, bat dong san khong co co hoi phuc hoi.

Chi so CPI tuy co giam, nhung van o muc cao. Lieu noi long chinh sach tien te co gay kho khan cho chong lam phat?

Cung tien mot cach hieu qua de tao ra hang hoa se khong gay lam phat, chi khi nao cung tien cho nhung cong trinh lang phi moi gay lam phat.

Theo toi, NHNN can giam du tru bat buoc xuong con 8-9%, dong thoi ap dung linh hoat hon cac cong cu tai chiet khau, tai cap von de tranh nhung "cu soc" lai suat tren thi truong lien NH do mot so NH thieu von, vay lai suat qua cao.

CPI tang cao khong chi vi cung tien, ma do nhieu yeu to quan trong khac nhu lang phi, tham nhung, dau tu cong kém hieu qua... Gia xang dau bien dong hoan toan khong do cung tien. Luong thuc - thuc pham bi "sot" gia cung do cac yeu to khac.

Theo cac van ban chi dao cua NHNN thi cac NH ap dung lai suat thuc duong. Tuy nhien, lai suat "tran" hien nay chi co 12%. Nhu vay co hop ly?

Lai suat tran 12% hien nay la phu hop. Tuy nhien, viec dieu hanh chinh sach tien te, trong do co lai suat, khong nen chi dua vao CPI ma phai dua vao chi so lam phat co ban (Core Inflation).

Chi so CPI trong 4 thang dau nam la 11,6%. Con so nay kha cao, mac du da ham chua yeu to bao cap: Nha nuoc tro gia dien, xang dau... va keu goi cac TCty khong tang gia mot so mat hang.

Neu nha nuoc khong con tro gia thi CPI se tang nhu the nao?

Theo mot so nguon du bao, CPI nam nay co the tren 15%, tham chi 20%.

Neu nganh NH thuc thi lai suat duong tren co so CPI thi lai suat se rat cao va nen kinh te khong the ganh chiu noi. Hien nhieu nuoc dieu hanh chinh sach tien te dua tren chi so lam phat co ban (Core Inflation), la chi tieu do luong lam phat da loai tru mot so mat hang de bien dong gia nhu nang luong, luong thuc - thuc pham...

Thi du: theo cach tinh cua My thi den het thang 3, CPI cua nuoc nay la 4%, Core Inflation la 2%, lai suat huy dong cua NH khoang tu 2-3%. VN cung nen tinh lai suat thuc duong tren Core Inflation nhung can phai cong bo ca 2 chi so.

CPI la de dieu hanh san xuat kinh doanh, xuat nhap khau, tien luong, chi tieu... Core Inflation de dieu hanh chinh sach tien te. Neu de cho nguoi dan ky vong lai suat thuc duong tren CPI se tao tam ly nan na, cho doi va nguon von huy dong se tiep tuc giam.

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